Fees bleg

Is the percentage of purse monies, paid to jockeys, negotiable or mandated?

Could a jockey charge less?

If it is mandated, could the authority set a lower fee for claiming races? Or any race for that matter?

If jockeys can charge what they want, they could compete on price and maybe the unknown jockeys could get a few more mounts out of the deal. Owners would, I imagine, take the offer from a jockey who can ride.

Elite jockeys would be in demand in the bigger races, where the marginal utility of their services would provide greater return.

I don't know of any studies and I imagine the competitive nature of jockeys skews this theory but would not the opportunity costs of riding in a low level claimer outweigh the potential return from any race. I think Jerry Bailey understood this concept.

If unknown jockeys can charge whatever they want, "elite" jockeys would probably reconsider riding that claimer for the same amount, focusing their attention on the higher purse races.

In theory.

System timed out...

Epic fail.

A missed opportunity.

The NTRA Live! experiment, while well intentioned and a positive development, signifies the inadequacy of that organization's management capabilities, given the server meltdown.

With an eager audience and one clamoring for an opportunity to view its stars in an open medium, the NTRA underwhelmed in its promise to deliver anything worthy of this game. The shortsighted nature of this organization has become monotonous in its pathos.

I don't blame the IT department-and by department I hope I am not referring to Waldrop's nephew; trying to handle that amount of traffic on a Commodore Vic20 is an Augean task. I understand the NTRA is underfunded and probably short staffed-Alex Waldrop might want to consider cutting his salary to funnel cash to the server acquisition department-but to so disappoint a captive crowd heralds the time for this game to look elsewhere for its promotional wing.

It reminds me of the French revolutionary who looks upon a rushing crowd and says, 'There go my people, I must find out where they are heading, so I can lead them.'

Boolean query: Anyone with a Mac and a dotTv domain could have pulled this operation off with fewer glitches?

What would it take for a small yet dedicated cadre of knowledgeable individuals to form a legitimate marketing/promotional organization, at a fraction of NTRA's operating budget, to give this game the professional face it deserves?

Conan O'Brien is looking for work. He recently Twittered he was going to follow some random person and she went from three to over 20,000 followers!!

He has a captive audience and knows how to marshal it. Why not throw an obscene amount of money at him and have him host a weekly show? Get Randy Moss as the straight man-he can't be happy with the way ESPN is treating the game.

Signal rights and what not might be a challenge but if this past weekend proves anything, it is people want access to the game, will allocate their attention to it and follow it with their cash. Tracks should be champing at the bit to get their product out into the mainstream-don't they teach that in Marketing and Business 101?

This platform could allow tracks and the game at large to cater directly to the customer and provide them with what they want at marginal cost. This study, while probably biased, seems to indicate just that.

Maybe the NTRA will learn from this. Maybe they will beef up their servers or steal a Linksys connection from the local Starbucks. Maybe tracks will realize the potential for growth through cooperation and the free distribution of their signal.

Maybe they will connect on their next opportunity but maybe they don't have too many of those left.

Because if you miss enough of them, that's the ballgame.

Kicking the can

A cursory search on the bloodhorse website, as it pertains to wagering reform:

1. "It's a work in progress as far as I'm concerned, but I think we're drawing closer to a cooperative effort," (2001)
   
2. Having discussions to discuss (2002)
   
3. In 2003...'Also discussed technology for the progressive scanning of wagers.'
   
4. 'With regulation, bet exchanges can work'
   
5. Confab to discuss.
6. 'Time has come to not just pay lip service to integrity'
   
7. $50 billion in handle by 2023
8. Then...'Nothing is going to happen easily'
9. 2004
10. Next
    
11. In 2006...'TRPB's efforts in wagering security during the past five years could provide invaluable assistance to any current or future plans by NTRA or RCI, and we are receptive to discussions regarding the retention of TRPB's unique expertise on behalf of those initiatives.'
    
12. 2009...Developing security initiative
13. Independent monitoring systems a 'non-solution'
    
14. 'On a mission...from God'

I'm sure this time, it's different.

Less can be more

The army has a saying, 'If it's stupid and it works, it's not stupid.'

I mean, if the NORAD commander in War Games was willing to piss on a spark plug to abort an uncommanded nuclear missile launch, how out there does an idea have to be in order to qualify for galactically stupid status?

The recent announcement by NJ, to cut dates and increase purses, has met with what can charitably be characterized as mixed feelings.

I like NJ; the residents are willing to offer advice from where you should go to how you should greet your relatives. NYC dwellers seem to think NJ is a Shangri-La of sorts and act as the unofficial tourism board for the Garden State, since they seem to encourage everybody to go there.

Why I can't make a damn left turn in the state or have SWAT called down on my ass if I try to pump my own gas is beyond me but I refer you to the saying at the top of this post.

Racing is in trouble, across the board. A change needs to happen in the way business is conducted. Ideas are good and hoping Lucy won't snake the football out from underneath us this time is just asinine. Management (and I use that term loosely to describe NTRA, Jockey Club, TOBA et al.) need to own up to the fiasco they have wrought.

Comte said, 'The intellect should be the servant of the heart but not its slave'.

Racing should be the biggest and the best sport out there. It should be in every strip mall and shopping center near you. It should draw crowds to make NASCAR nation look like the campaign committee for Blagojevich/Paterson 2012.

And my "Great American Novel" should, like Athena, spring from my head but it is proving recalcitrant in that regard.

Five-thousand dollar claimers should be the healthiest, soundest, fastest, flea ridden sacks of bones on the plant. Not the most medicated.

At every level, racing should be about the best it has to offer.

Just because you own a horse shouldn't entitle you to run it well past its useful racing life and racing secretaries shouldn't have to beg trainers to enter unprepared horses in a race just to get a field of six to go.

I am not indifferent to the genuine hardship many will face in the reduction that has to happen but if we tried to save everybody that had skin in the game, we would still have buggy whip makers out there.

Open source and 2.0 are not just buzz words. They are the social expectations of the next generation. The generation inheriting this game, who won't tolerate the nostrums handed down by the old guard.

I think this decision by NJ is a watershed moment. I am prepared to be wrong-I have a lot of practice-but the outcome of this next season will shape the landscape of the game. Surrounded by slot states, with a dysfunctional NYRA next door, NJ will be the test group for how a season should be handled.

If horsemen take the 'I'm taking my ball and going home' approach, if they don't make an honest effort to make this NJ racing season a successful one, they will have their pyrrhic victory and can smirk and say 'I told you so.' the whole time they are circling the drain.

If, on the other hand, they defy all expectations and go where the money is; if they realize that competition is good and cream rises; if they allow for the possibility that bettors like full fields of sound, healthy horses; if they put aside outdated beliefs and reach for the better part of the game, then this game will be a sight to see.

I mean a sight to see.

Pooling resources

Under the umbrella of NTRA, lies NTRA Investments LLC.

Within the framework of what passes for inter-track agreements and ADW revenue distribution, lies a gaping hole the size of the game.

What is there to prevent NTRA Investments from finding a backer, say The Jockey Club or Sheikh Mohammed or Halsey Minor(what happened to him?), and co-signing a loan to start up an industry standard ADW-wholly owned by the NTRA? Since the NTRA is not-for profit, it could pool all the ADW wagers and distribute them according to source, without regard for its own profit. A central clearing house if you will.

The office gets to market the game as well as the gambling and has a say regarding the direction of the revenue stream.

Every track pays a fee or a contribution to enter into deal (much like they do now). NTRA (backed by the loan or whoever) agrees to match all source contributions, thereby doubling the pot.

All wagers are funneled back to the host tracks with an administrative fee assessed by the NTRA, say 1%, to cover stamps, and bolster the original pot. Since host tracks and wagering tracks are in the agreement, the allocation of revenue is agreed upon no matter the source. Laurel to Gulfstream or Yavapai to Belmont. It doesn't matter.

Tracks get their money and gamblers get to bet on whatever track they want without blackouts. NTRA could buy out an ADW with the loan or start their own and build it to compete. Get somebody who knows what they're doing. Franchise it, have one in every shopping mall. Dream BIG.

Use the recognition, such as it is, of the office to promote the game and the ADW and have a say in the integrity of the sport.

At the end of the year, the pooled money is distributed back to the tracks according to whatever metrics they want, based on all source revenue; or field size; or fatalities per start...whatever.

Say, for argument, ten tracks sign up and each pays in $50,000. The total pot, after matching, becomes $1,000,000 plus whatever additional monies result from the commingled ADW revenue pool. At the end of the year, if the money is distributed evenly, every track gets at least double their money back, which they could turn around and funnel back into the pool or use for purses or, say, I don't know, customer service amenities.

Get a big name sponsor, or any sponsor for that matter, to support the initiative and back the loan or even fund the matching up to a certain amount. They have exclusivity of marketing and the game gets a financial kick in the pants.

If tracks dispute the revenue sharing or the percentage of distribution, institute a system of punishment where revenue could be subtracted from the offending track but with a penalty commensurate to a third of the infraction on the plaintiff track.

So, if Gulfstream thinks Laurel, over the course of the year made out to the tune of $30,000 at their expense, it could petition to have Laurel's end of year distribution reduced by the 30k-Gulfstream would not get that money, it would just stay in the pool. In addition, for filing the complaint, Gulfstream's distribution would be reduced by a third of the stated amount, or 10k. This would prevent tracks from just frivolously bitch slapping each other around.

The initial stake is the thing. Who is going to back it?

But who wouldn't join it and why?

Disconnect

Perhaps I am looking at this all wrong but I don't understand the resistance to trying new things.

There seems to be some dissatisfaction with the state of racing but I don't see anybody actually doing anything about it. There are good ideas but where is the implementation?

Most agree takeout is too high but when presented with the idea of systematically affecting handle, all I hear are crickets. If a product is unsatisfactory and one keeps using it, what signal does that send to the provider? Does anyone imagine that Original Coke would have made it back if the consumer said, 'This New Coke sucks my ass but what the hell, I'll buy it because it's all there is'?

Open source is an amazing thing and cooperation, on a grand scale, is possible in this day. What is the downside to trying it out?

I'm asking.

Theory is nice and all but it doesn't really get anything done. Any endeavour is, at its core, a series of tasks. Deploying resources in the most effective manner, i.e. where they will do the most good. 'Getting there firstest with the mostest' if you will.

Implementing a wagering blackout might not be the best idea.

But it is actionable.

Mass at the point of decision

Where the hell do I start?

The problem, as I see it, is the lack of a unifying theory that governs horse racing. The individual fiefdoms and the petty lords that govern them do not lend themselves to cooperation and success.

The government holds the literal purse strings of our game and that federal adjudication induces the heterodox and sclerotic tendencies of the sport's superintendents.

That singularity separates our game from everything else. From that provenance, all decisions spurt. Small fields; large takeout; obscene breeding practices, prices and schedules; early retirement; restricted and expensive data; myriad jurisdictions and regulations; saddle cloth colors...all of it.

Jefferson's opinions regarding revolution notwithstanding, I am not advocating the violent overthrow of our government-although wiping the slate clean does have its allure.

I think the largest impediment to this game is the lack of central authority, in whatever form that has to take. I am not suggesting giving control to the federal or state government-they couldn't orchestrate a happy meal-my thought is for racing to appoint itself a central governing body and to adhere to its proposals and regulations across the board.

Without clearly defining the problem, then developing a philosophical algorithm if you will, we are all just taking up space. Once identified, we address the conditions the resolutions must adhere to in order to be effective.

This is of course my opinion and I am happy for the debate. I want ideas. What is the single thing that has to change in order for everything we all blather about to have the proverbial snowball's chance in hell of succeeding?

Without vision there can be no goal and without goals there can be no plan. Without a plan there can be no action and without action there can be no success. This is management 2.0.

Blue blooded blather

Takeover Target, not pictured, tore a tendon in the Golden Jubilee Stakes GrI, at Ascot and is returning home to Australia. I would post the interview I did with the horse after he sustained his injury but I am worried that people wouldn't like me.

As a man of influence and prestige, I am of course beset upon by myriad institutions to lend my good name to their enterprise; in that vein I have consented to reach down into the flotsam of advertisers at my feet and promote a Horse betting site on this internationally demanded blog. (I'm just glad at least one person stumbled across this thing and made the mistake of assuming that people read it...thanks Melanie)

Seeing how I am one of the racing elite now (that's our baby in the picture), I feel qualified to throw my proverbial hat in the ring of public discourse on the racing industry.

How does one get heard? There are ideas out there, we are not starved for those and yet the people with those ideas are shut out of any and all meaningful discourse by the so-called caretakers of this sport. What explains this obdurate refusal to open up to the concerned following and welcome the helping hand we are desperately waving?

Alex Waldrop posted a moving piece about the importance of cooperation and forward thinking and Kumbaya-like harmony amongst the racing executives. Talk is cheap-or writing at any rate, present company included. If the meeting was so important, why was it not disclosed beforehand? (Was it?) Where is the video of the meeting itself? Why couldn't you link the minutes of the meeting in your blog Mr. Waldrop? Why is there not an open forum of discussion? Why don't the racing jurisdictions adopt one set of rules and enforcement procedures? What IS the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow?

It does not cease to amaze me how much I don't know about the inner workings of this industry and the petty turf wars waged on a daily basis by the anarcho-syndicalist communes we laughingly refer to as the industry leaders. The ship is sinking and they are fighting over whose flag gets to fly on the transom.

Might as well fly the white one.

They call it BLOODSTOCK for a reason

I found this a few days ago and have no idea what to make of it.

In theory it sounds like a brilliant idea but the practical execution of it is beyond me, then again I didn't understand SIV's and CDS's and I hear those were a resounding success.

The site portrays the setup as a fractional ownership of racehorses but then there is trading involved. It is in the beta phase I guess but it still does not make sense to me. In the fractional aircraft business one does not trade one's share in the aircraft. The whole purpose of the fractional ownership program is to allow one to share a corporate jet for a "fraction" of the cost required to own one entirely. In turn, one gets some fixed number of hours to use the aircraft throughout the year and does not have to deal with the hassle of managing the aircraft maintenance and staffing issues. There are also a contract and a monthly management fee involved.

How would you assure the integrity of your transaction? I guess corporate aircraft are not fungible but I wouldn't imagine that horses are either. Any ideas?

Sound and fury

Class will tell.

The House Subcommittee on Commerce, Trade and Consumer Protection concluded its hearings today sans "Babe" Dutrow. He was a vet scratch apparently, feeling under the weather. Maybe he could have used a shot of Winstrol. The chairwoman Jan Schakowsky stated that the committee had not received word from Dutrow that he would not make the hearing. Dutrow claims he informed the committee of his planned absence. I wonder who is not telling the truth?
Update: Dutrow apparently was telling the truth. (10:15 in Paulick's live blog) Sorry Babe.

The panel, by and large, expressed its frustration with the industry in general and its eagerness to ban the use of medication in racing. A consensus was reached on the need for a governing authority for horse racing and the dysfunctional status of the current system, with the glaring exception of Alex Waldrop, president and CEO of the NTRA. Like the entertainment director aboard the Titanic, he claimed-with a straight face worthy of Oscar nomination-that the industry was best positioned to regulate itself and was making great inroads towards achieving self governing credibility. (My words, I'm not a journalist so I'm paraphrasing.) You bloody wanker, have the brass to step up to the plate and admit that you and the entire industry are useless and detrimental to the sport in general. Nobody wants to be told what to do but have the simple decency to admit that after so much time to fix your own mess you need to let someone in to do it for you. Piss off.

But I digress.

Curiously, TOBA has a new owner video thing on the Bloodhorse and in one of their presentations Dr. Chip Johnson, DVM, states that he, as a vet, has a truckload full of great stuff to make your horse run faster. WTF?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?? In the intro to the whole series, the moderator states that the purpose of TOBA is to increase the economics and integrity(IN THAT ORDER)of the sport.

Dutrow with his absence and Waldrop with his shrill cry of "...nothing to see here" prove that in the end, this whole charade was the classic "...tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

Class will tell.

Which one of these is not like the other?

Since I can't come up with any brilliant ideas of my own, I am happy to steal some from better minds.

Much has been posted in the last few days regarding the state of the industry and the upcoming congressional hearings, the battle for ADW revenue and across the board purse cuts at several tracks. The product, in its current incarnation, is flawed.

History and tradition are all well and good but there are times when new blood is needed. Baseball lowered the mound and brought in the DH (nobody consulted with me on that), hockey put that glowing thing on the puck...well nevermind that one, american football brought in instant replay and even football experimented with the golden goal.

Horse racing, meanwhile, has only adopted higher takeouts and anabolic steroids.

What if, the jockey club or whoever is in charge of such things, allowed...wait for it...promotional logos on the jockey pants and saddlecloth? I know, they did that already but they could do it more. Allow the jockeys and whatever owner wants to, to place ads on the silks and pants. They could agree to a certain percentage of that ad revenue to go to the owner but most of it would go to the tracks purse structure. Work out the details...I'm just the idea man.

Don't like the ads on the silks and pants? What if they clipped it into the horse when they shaved them?

What if BMW Oracle formed a racing partnership? Exxon Mobil? National Geographic? Viagra? Would they own any geldings....?

Talk amongst yourselves.

Penal colonies and Empires

John McCririck has a few bland comments about Australian racing in anticipation of this year's Royal Ascot meet.

Concerning the raison d'etre for this blog (I don't know how to make the hat on top of the e), the racing partnership I was hoping to form is not progressing as quickly as I hoped. How hard can it be? You start a blog and millions of people read it and out of those millions, thousands must be clamoring for a piece of this half-baked idea. Doesn't this kind of thing happen all the time? We go pick out a horse and the next thing you know we win the Triple Crown. I mean, come on...

I found this guy out on the east coast who was putting together his own partnership and has in fact done this before so that immediately makes him Charlie Wittingham in my book. Seems decent enough of a chap and was willing to put up with my incessant questions. Apparently, and I don't know if you've heard, we are in a recession-no really, it's in all the papers; most people find it impractical to spend thousands of dollars on a pastime that may or may not drop dead at a moments notice. His partnership was moving along just as slowly but a friend of his who owns a few horses was looking to claim a horse at Churchill, Amoss is his trainer, and bring him to Arlington when Churchill finishes its meet.

This being one of those moments when the clouds break enough for that heavenly light to spotlight on you and the mysterious chorus of angels sings in the background, I jumped all over it. I fully expect this to fall through but its fun to have something to look forward to. The five or six people that had expressed an interest in joining my partnership might also be invited to join, although I don't know if they will since they only agreed to join with me to get me to shut up. They might see this as their spotlight moment to bail...you sure you're o.k.? O.K., see ya.

Updates to follow, I'm sure you're all breathless with anticipation.

I threw Empire Maker up there just for the cheap play on the name. Euro 2008 beckons...

Your package has been lost...

Photo: Anne M. Eberhardt


UPS does not deliver. Hooters shows up flat. No drugs, no horse.

Dick Dutrow GUARANTEED a win on the walk out to the paddock but Da'Tara intercepted his package and delivered him a big tall cup of Shut the hell up. The last few months Dutrow has been nothing short of abrasive in his assessment of Big Brown's abilities and his equal disdain for the rest of the sport. Big Brown was clearly not himself today and he left his trainer nose deep in a big, deserving bag of shit.

ABC and ESPN were equally classless in their post race coverage, concentrating solely on the loser and giving nothing but short shrift to the winning connections.

The old adage, class matters, applies to more than just the caliber of the horse. The connections should display some as well and Dutrow/IEAH seemed to have forgotten that this sport as well as life is humbling but here and now, at the end of all things, I don't really hold Dutrow's bravado against him.

Dutrow, until today, had the best horse. A maverick, he usually steamrolled through the competition; today just wasn't his day. Most people, dealt a hand like Dutrow's, don't have the brass to walk up and place a bet. Dutrow, called in all his markers and put it all on the line. The dice roll funny for everyone. He will have other days; it's margin call today.

Most people don't like arrogance because it reminds them that they have very little to be arrogant about and the schadenfreude is pervasive. Dutrow called his shot and swung away.

He should not second guess himself or shy away from the media, neither of which I think he will do. I am reminded of a scene from James Goldman's play, The Lion in Winter, when Geoffrey scoffs at Richard while they are waiting for the axe:

Geoffrey: You fool! As if it matters how a man falls down!
Richard: When the fall is all that's left, it matters a great deal.

Godspeed Big Brown...may you enjoy the breeding shed.

I'm not dead yet

Perhaps not all of the Illinois public servants are imbeciles with their heads up their ass.

In what must surely have been a momentary lapse of reason, the Illinois supreme court voted to overturn a decision from 2006 and grant Illinois racetracks, revenue from the state's riverboat casino's. Story.

The Illinois casino's can still appeal, however, the U.S. Supreme Court has been reluctant in the past to take on similar cases which it deems to be a state issue that does not involve interstate commerce. See Chicago Barn to Wire forums for more details.

Maybe, just maybe, if this windfall comes through I can pull in the last few people I need to get my partnership going. With an expected 47% increase in purse monies, local horsemen might be more willing to run their horses here instead of shipping.

I am also still waiting for Godot...

All right...we'll call it a draw

The legend of King Arthur is well known. A myth0-historic figure, imbued by a moistened bink with the touch of destiny and the promise of a people. He gathers the scattered and listless knights-errant knaves and debauched soldiers-and binds them to the common cause of bringing a society out of the mire and squalor of internecine strife into a golden age.

I don't know any of the connections of Big Brown. I don't know anybody that does know any of the connections of Big Brown. I read the industry rags and I watch the blogrolls so I guess I am as informed as the rest of the herd. The opinions out there are not favorable regarding the connections of the Rule V.6 violator. Michael Iavarone is apparently a small-time, stock hustling pimp. Dick "Babe" Dutrow has seventy-two violations according to the Association of Racing Commissioners International. And Desormeaux...well his only knock is that he MAY have moved a little too early with Real Quiet. Yet here they are, about to crest the summit of racing immortality.

If he wins the Belmont Stakes, Big Brown will race at most two more times. Dutrow has already stated that he likes to give his horses a lot of time between races and the Travers and Classic are well spaced; nothing is gained by running him in any "preps". His Triple Crown should not be asterisked, umlauted or pronounced with a uvular fricative; he ducked nobody and beat them all at level weights (if he wins). He will not, however, be campaigned to promote horse racing but he will definitely be marketed. The people that fall for that though, will disappear as soon as he smells his first teaser mare; they are also the same people-I think-that explain the popularity of American Idol. If he loses, then there will undoubtedly be the discovery of "...an unnamed, non-specific injury that in no way compromised his soundness but for the welfare of the horse will lead to his retirement and a productive and lucrative career in the breeding shed." I don't know anything about quarter cracks or hooves, for that you should read Fran Jurga's blog, but if he does lose and runs poorly, then everyone and their mother will fall on Dutrow like a hypoglycemic Sumo wrestler on a water diet; whether the hoof issue has anything to do with it or not.

Big Brown better win and he should, on paper. There is a fine line between confidence and arrogance and like many things it depends on your perspective. The IEAH/Dutrow exacta has left that line far, far behind but whatever your feelings towards them are, nobody has claimed that they have done anything illegal with this horse. They are arrogant and abrasive-Dutrow was classless in criticizing Servis and Elliott for their run with Smarty Jones-but they have backed up their bravado every time; granted, Kramer dominated a group of kids in karate class but I think you get my point. Yet the question has never been asked of Big Brown; he has never had to look another horse in the eye and dig down within himself to meet the challenge and for that reason Dutrow should strut just a little less dramatically. Bernardini could not answer that question in 2006 and he was a monster, albeit with classier connections, so his defeat was not derided as much as Big Brown's would be.

Big Brown will not save horse racing or his connections and the latter most definitely do not need it. What he can do is give them the second chance that, ultimately, is what everyone wants; the warm embrace of a bed-wetters dream. He can bring horse racing into the twenty-first century, lob the proverbial scimitar of supreme executive power to one man who can gather the errant knights of trainers and owners and join the battle against the dysfunctional hydra that is the NTRA.

Because if something doesn't happen here, now, with this backdrop, then that spindly left front hoof with the 5/8in. quarter crack may as well be the left leg of the Black Knight that Arthur fights at the bridge.

Churchill May 30

So I'm getting rid of Dish network. The last couple of days the signal has been all but non-existant and the weather has not been bad. They charge $49 for someone to come out and take a look at their crappy equipment. Screw them, I'm going to go get screwed by comcast.

So I spent most of the morning messing with the signal receiver and the dish and customer service, leaving little time for my handicapping. I'm going to go to the OTB by my house to watch the days races and they don't allow laptops in there so I won't be able to post anything once I leave. Churchill starts late today but I still have five races to handicap.

Race 1 is a Clm 15000N2l for fillies and mares at 5 1/2f. Miss Maisy will probably be the favorite but she is a frontrunner and there figures to be plenty of speed in here to keep her honest. It sets up for a closer in this field of five and I give a weak nod to the 3 Suerte.

Race 2 Clm 5000 at 5 1/2f. Again, plenty of speed on paper in here and while I think Amoss's horse Liqueur, the 7, looks tough I'm going to go with the 8 Ask Sidney.

Race 3 Clm 25000 for fillies and mares at 1m. The 5, Geniver, splashed home last out for fun and steps up in company so I am going to say the mud helped her out and go with the 1 Morghyn.

Races 4&5 we pass.

Race 6 Alw7500s at 1 1/16m. Por Favor takes a huge drop in class and can sit off the pace for the win. His numbers are competitive and he comes out of a key race. If he doesn't fire then Dual Jewels will pick up the pieces.

Race 7 pass.

Race 8 OC100k for fillies and mares 1m on the turf. I like Swingit the 2.

Race 9 Alw 50000s for those that broke MDN at 50000 or less and N2l. Seven furlongs. Ready in the Morn, the 7. Although horses this bad can't be counted on for anything. This is a MDn claimer for winners.

Race 10 MSW 41k 1 1/8 on the turf. Can't really tell but either the 3 or the 6.

This weekend is going to suck since I won't have T.V. but June 1st is on sunday so I start laying real money down. I won't be betting every race, just those where I feel the value is there or I have a STRONG feeling. We'll see...

Custer, too, had a plan...

Here are the results for Churchill today:
http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=CD&CTY=USA&DATE=20080529&RN=99

Well, I missed the winner. His last few races left much to be desired and his last, in the slop-which he handles, against the same class was definitely not encouraging. Out of seven tries at Churchill he has hit the board only once, granted it was a win but his form was lacking...Oh well.

Race 3 somebody knew something but it wasn't me. They made Angelica Delight the 4/5 favorite and she set an easy uncontested lead leaving her plenty of gas for the stretch. Silvie's Lullaby faded just like her last.

Race 4 We got the 4/5 winner by a nose. YAY.

Race 5 My pick scratched but I don't know how I missed the winner. I had him circled on the form and he was 4/5. Just sloppy I guess.

Race 6 The winner won at 11-1 as part of an entry?!?!?!?!?!?!? No form whatsoever and I would have had to hit the all button to come up with him. Our horse checked in fourth as part of a 3 way photo for place.

Race 7 We ran fourth as the second choice. It happens.

Race 8 We win.

Race 9 Finished fourth as the favorite.

I ended up with two out of seven which is better than I thought I would do. The speed handicapping is helping me focus more on culling the losers but I am still sloppy in narrowing down the winners. It is helping though.

Beats a sharp stick in the eye

I did some rough calculations and from the numbers I get I have picked 14 out of 35 winners. This is just a straight pick regardless of odds and betting value. The sample size is admittedly small but it is encouraging and better than I expected. With a 40% win rate I can safely bet horses at 2-1 or better and expect a 20% ROI.

So who wants to give me their money???

Churchill May 21

Not a bad card at Churchill. Track is fast turf is firm. First post is 1315 EST.

None of the races today are calling on me to mortgage the house.

The first race is a Clm 10000 at 7f. The only horse to show a win at this distance is the 1 El Salsero. He is stepping up from a fair effort in a Clm 7500 at 61/2f. I'm going to go with the 2B Stormy Atlantis, he is an entry so you get two for the price of one. His last few have been awful but they were in the slop, synthetic or turf against tougher and going longer. He likes Churchill and hits at 40% on fast tracks. Take the 1 to complete the exacta.

Race 2 is a MSW 41k at 4 1/2f for 2 year olds. No clue but I'll pick the 4 Regardlesofoutcome.

Race 3 is an open Clm 25000 at 1m 1/16. I like the 2 Golden Glen but I think that everyone else will too. Edit 10 minutes before post...the 2 is currently 9/5 the 4, Saviano is at 5-1 so from a value standpoint, the 4 is the better BET.

Race 4 Alw 43100N1x at 1m 1/16 on the turf. I'm going with the 1a Grape Cottage.

Race 5 Clm 15000N3l at 1m 1/16. I like the 3 Cantallbechiefs. A tactical drop in class for him and superior figs. Asmussen and Bridgmohan. NO WAY anyone else sees this.

Race 6 a Clm 5000 at 6f. I like the 4 Delightful Demi...just because Demi Moore is hot.

Race 7 A good Alw43100N1x for fillies at 1m 1/8. I like the 1 French Kiss.

The UEFA Champions League game is on soon so I am calling it a day. I might play Arlington on friday, if I decide to go to the track with some friends. Until tomorrow...
A friend once told me that to have a chance in this game I should find a really fast horse, so I'll leave you with that.

On Galileo and matters of gravity...

When I started this blog, I meant only for it to push me into starting a racing partnership and becoming involved in the industry. I did this solely for myself, with no desire to share this with the world. I don't have the discipline to write or keep a journal and when it comes to actually sitting down and putting something on paper, virtual or otherwise, I have the attention span of a cat on meth; besides, when you see someone's journal you think it might be something you want to read. So where can one set down their thoughts without everyone else trying to rummage through them? The middle of a crowd offers wonderful opportunities for inconspicuousness.

I feel about social networking and those that can't stop talking about it the way most people feel about Bush or the supporting characters in Deliverance. At stores, when I am asked for my phone number and zip-code, I make them up. I had no intention of trying to disseminate this page, link it, delicious it or whatever else the hell people do with this but as with the best laid plans of mice and men...here I am, down here with the rest of you. Does the stink ever wear off?

Racing has issues and they are a myriad; this is not the time nor the place to list them. It is in trouble but that has been the case for the past fifty years. Much has been written recently about Big Brown, the Derby, the gallant Eight Belles and BB's dominance over this years crop. There are cries for changes to the industry or its immediate dissolution. Members of the Algonquin Round Table: CNN, Fox, USAToday, Arianna Huffington and PETA have chimed in with their insider's knowledge of the thoroughbred industry to lend them weight. Drugs and medications,legal or not, are rampant and if history is any indication, the Socratic and somber members of Congress will soon subpoena Big Brown to the hill to testify against Dutrow.

IEAH is a hedge fund. Dutrow is a man with his own demons and it is not my place to judge him, all of us in our own way are after all fighting the alligator that is closest to our ass. What I find bizarre and possibly criminally stupid is Dutrow's public claim that he has no idea what Winstrol does but as long as its legal he will let the vet administer it. What the hell is that? How do you 1) admit that and B)keep employing a man who admits that? As a hedge fund manager, in charge of tens of millions of dollars, how do you let your prime asset receive such indifferent care. If I had Big Brown I would hire tasters for his food, maybe death-row inmates or terminally ill people who are in clinical drug studies. I don't know I'm spit-balling here.

Everyone is talking Triple Crown and how Big Brown will save the sport if he wins it. Maybe he wins, I don't know, he has a good shot. I think I could win an Olympic event if I faced REALLY slow people. What I don't think will happen is that, magically, after the Belmont, tracks across the country will be flooded by patrons lining up at the two dollar window. If he wins, Big Brown will NEVER race again. Iavarone is a hedge fund manager but he is not stupid. If he is and made all that money then I am in the wrong business, that though is an entirely different blog. There is no up side, from a financial standpoint, to racing BB after the Belmont if he wins. Iavarone is not a fan or a purist, whatever platitudes he spits out. Whatever the ramifications to the industry, its fan base, the breeders that like lemmings will line up and the ensuing product, IEAH will make a tidy profit from Big Brown and turn the page. And what about the horse? Big Brown is just doing what he knows, better than anybody else out there this year. He won't get to prove anything by winning at Belmont and then he will have an asterisk placed by his name because he happened to be the best of his generation and owned by someone who didn't have the stones or the character to step up to the line and roll the bones.

Big Brown will probably win and the Algonquin Round Table might interrupt their breaking story of a domestic dispute in a trailer park somewhere to cover the festivities. Many pundits will wax philosophically about how he is the best horse of all time and how horse racing needed him to come along at just this moment, this critical juncture in the space-time continuum. He will be hyped as the long awaited hero. The horse that can save the industry. But when Andrea said 'Pity the land that has no hero.' in Bertolt Brecht's play, Galileo sagely counters, 'Pity the land that needs a hero.'