A long, hard look

I don't play three card monty; I don't like being setup and I can't follow the cards fast enough to beat the con. I'm balding but I don't buy hair restoration cream no matter how many quadruple blind tests it has undergone. I don't play the lottery, I, generally, don't lick electrical outlets and I am never, ever sick at sea. So I take more than my particular exception to the august body that is the United States Congress, when they decide to step into the arena of horse racing and lay down their Solomon-like wisdom on matters great and small.

Genius may have its limitations, but stupidity is not thus handicapped
-Elbert Hubbard

Why am I supposed to believe that "This time it's different"? How many times do we have to touch that hot stove before we realize that it's hot? This dog and pony show, catering to the same audience that makes American Idol what it is, is a farcical ceremony as are the various industry wide committee's.

A committee is a cul-de-sac down which ideas are lured and then quietly strangled.
-Sir Barnett Cocks

Nobody needs to discuss what the problems are; everybody knows. Medication, drugs and what laughably is referred to as the industries fines (indulge me) and suspensions program. Enough already.

We are to blame. You...me.

We all know that this goes on day in and day out and yet we continue to patronize this sham. If any of us really gave a shit we would show up on BIG race days by NOT showing up. Don't bet. Take a pass. Stick it to these industry hacks like they have been sticking it to us for all these years. If there is no betting, then there are no purses and no racing. No racing, no money and no job. Pocket book politics. That's the beauty of the system, we have it within our means to effect change in a very real way.

Otherwise we might as well go piss into the wind.

Before I go admire my self-righteous ass in a mirror, let me just say that I am WAY psyched about the Churchill card for tomorrow and can't wait to throw some money down on it.

Rubbin', son, is racin'...

In an absolutely brilliant ride by Johnny Murtagh, Soldier of Fortune powers home in the Juddmonte Coronation Cup at Epsom Downs on Friday.

After tracking a pair of his stablemates, Song of Hiawatha and Macarthur, through the first 9 furlongs, Johnny Murtagh moved on Soldier of Fortune, alongside 5-4 favorite Getaway, keeping the latter on the rail as they ran up on the tiring pacesetters. Stephane Pasquier had to take up on Getaway to keep him from running up on Macarthur, losing valuable ground and momentum inside the 2 furlong pole. Youmzain, ever the bridesmaid in these events, closed strongly to take the place 3/4 length behind the winner, Macarthur held on for the show. I think the stewards handed Murtagh a three day suspension for the tactics but they did not take his number down. I can't find any evidence of this and I'm too lazy to look that hard.

The Epsom Derby is tomorrow, going is good throughout with a nice day in store for southeast England. Here are the entries:

Epsom 4:00 VODAFONE DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Winner £802,443.95 1m4f10y GOOD No. Form Horse Trainer RTF % Wgt Jockey 1(12) 1223-4 Alan Devonshire 28 M H Tompkins 64 3 9-0 Paul Mulrennan 115 106 2(1) 831-41 Alessandro Volta 28 A P O´Brien 74 3 9-0 J A Heffernan 122 97 3(9) 34-53 Bashkirov 27 A P O´Brien 74 3 9-0 David McCabe 99 101 4(2) 43-127 Bouguereau 27 P W Chapple-Hyam 70 3 9-0 Alan Munro 122 115 5(10) 1-1 Casual Conquest 27 D K Weld 58 3 9-0 P J Smullen 5 134 120 6(6) 2215-1 Curtain Call 45 L M Cumani 77 3 9-0 Jamie Spencer 127 115 7(13) 221-21 Doctor Fremantle 30 Sir Michael Stoute 88 3 9-0 Kerrin McEvoy 2 128 126 8(15) 18-2 Frozen Fire 23 A P O´Brien 74 3 9-0 M J Kinane 133 128 9(8) 211-21 Kandahar Run 35 H R A Cecil 50 3 9-0 Ted Durcan 122 112 10(11) 710-52 King Of Rome 28 A P O´Brien 74 3 9-0 J Murtagh 121 96 11(7) 0-5303 Maidstone Mixture 110 (13J) Paul Murphy — 3 9-0 Michael O´Connell - - 12(3) 111-22 New Approach 14 J S Bolger 57 3 9-0 K J Manning 3 137 131 13(17) 1214-2 Rio De La Plata 27 Saeed Bin Suroor 73 3 9-0 L Dettori 132 126 14(4) 817-43 River Proud 27 P F I Cole 26 3 9-0 DOUBTFUL 129 122 15(5) 10-1 Tajaaweed 29 Sir Michael Stoute 88 3 9-0 R Hills 132 128 16(14) 2-11 Tartan Bearer 23 Sir Michael Stoute 88 3 9-0 Ryan Moore 4 135 128 17(16) 4-22 Washington Irving 27 A P O´Brien 74 3 9-0 C O´Donoghue 119 109 BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Casual Conquest, 9/2 Curtain Call, 5/1 New Approach, 6/1 Tartan Bearer, 8/1 Doctor Fremantle, 10/1 Tajaaweed, 14/1 King Of Rome, 16/1 Frozen Fire, 20/1 Kandahar Run, Rio De La Plata, 40/1 Alessandro Volta, Washington Irving, 150/1 Bouguereau, 200/1 Alan Devonshire, 500/1 Bashkirov, Maidstone Mixture, SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Aidan O'Brien and Michael Stoute have won this four times in the last seven years and between them they have nearly half of today's field, but they may be upstaged by Dermot Weld who has an equally fine record on the international stage. His CASUAL CONQUEST (nap) looked a colt of huge talent and potential when running away with Ireland's most significant Derby trial at Leopardstown last month and he will be very well suited by today's trip. The Stoute trio all came through their trials successfully but there has to be a stamina doubt about Tajaaweed, so Tartan Bearer and Doctor Fremantle look his main players and both have solid frame claims. In contrast, only Alessandro Volta of the O'Brien quintet comes here with a win to his name this season but it is his Lingfield victim King Of Rome, who has a highly unlikely profile for a Derby winner, that Johnny Murtagh has surprisingly opted for and it will be a good result for Ballydoyle if any of their contenders make the frame. New Approach and Curtain Call are easily most interesting of the remainder.[AC] Copied from racingpost.co.uk I like Tartan Bearer at 6-1.

Churchill May 30

So I'm getting rid of Dish network. The last couple of days the signal has been all but non-existant and the weather has not been bad. They charge $49 for someone to come out and take a look at their crappy equipment. Screw them, I'm going to go get screwed by comcast.

So I spent most of the morning messing with the signal receiver and the dish and customer service, leaving little time for my handicapping. I'm going to go to the OTB by my house to watch the days races and they don't allow laptops in there so I won't be able to post anything once I leave. Churchill starts late today but I still have five races to handicap.

Race 1 is a Clm 15000N2l for fillies and mares at 5 1/2f. Miss Maisy will probably be the favorite but she is a frontrunner and there figures to be plenty of speed in here to keep her honest. It sets up for a closer in this field of five and I give a weak nod to the 3 Suerte.

Race 2 Clm 5000 at 5 1/2f. Again, plenty of speed on paper in here and while I think Amoss's horse Liqueur, the 7, looks tough I'm going to go with the 8 Ask Sidney.

Race 3 Clm 25000 for fillies and mares at 1m. The 5, Geniver, splashed home last out for fun and steps up in company so I am going to say the mud helped her out and go with the 1 Morghyn.

Races 4&5 we pass.

Race 6 Alw7500s at 1 1/16m. Por Favor takes a huge drop in class and can sit off the pace for the win. His numbers are competitive and he comes out of a key race. If he doesn't fire then Dual Jewels will pick up the pieces.

Race 7 pass.

Race 8 OC100k for fillies and mares 1m on the turf. I like Swingit the 2.

Race 9 Alw 50000s for those that broke MDN at 50000 or less and N2l. Seven furlongs. Ready in the Morn, the 7. Although horses this bad can't be counted on for anything. This is a MDn claimer for winners.

Race 10 MSW 41k 1 1/8 on the turf. Can't really tell but either the 3 or the 6.

This weekend is going to suck since I won't have T.V. but June 1st is on sunday so I start laying real money down. I won't be betting every race, just those where I feel the value is there or I have a STRONG feeling. We'll see...

Custer, too, had a plan...

Here are the results for Churchill today:
http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=CD&CTY=USA&DATE=20080529&RN=99

Well, I missed the winner. His last few races left much to be desired and his last, in the slop-which he handles, against the same class was definitely not encouraging. Out of seven tries at Churchill he has hit the board only once, granted it was a win but his form was lacking...Oh well.

Race 3 somebody knew something but it wasn't me. They made Angelica Delight the 4/5 favorite and she set an easy uncontested lead leaving her plenty of gas for the stretch. Silvie's Lullaby faded just like her last.

Race 4 We got the 4/5 winner by a nose. YAY.

Race 5 My pick scratched but I don't know how I missed the winner. I had him circled on the form and he was 4/5. Just sloppy I guess.

Race 6 The winner won at 11-1 as part of an entry?!?!?!?!?!?!? No form whatsoever and I would have had to hit the all button to come up with him. Our horse checked in fourth as part of a 3 way photo for place.

Race 7 We ran fourth as the second choice. It happens.

Race 8 We win.

Race 9 Finished fourth as the favorite.

I ended up with two out of seven which is better than I thought I would do. The speed handicapping is helping me focus more on culling the losers but I am still sloppy in narrowing down the winners. It is helping though.

What seems to be the problem officer?

Churchill is dark tomorrow due to the Memorial day racing so I had no card to handicap. I spent the greater part of my day tweaking the layout of my blog and trying to figure out how to embed widget code and such nonsense onto the page. The trojan horse that infiltrates your computer is not my fault...

I did buy a car in less than thirty seconds and had it delivered twenty minutes after I bought it so the day was not a complete wash. Yeah...that's how I roll.

I read on DRF today-don't make me figure out how to link this particular snippet without unintentionally attaching the entire search history on my browser-that John Sadler was fined $500 by the Hollywood Park stewards for failing to report that one of his horses had been gelded since its last start. Now I don't know the man, nor do I know enough about handicapping to presume to say that the status of a horse's sexual equipment plays ANY part in my selection; to wit...man I can't believe that giraffe knocked me out of the Pick Four, dead last in its last seven and vanned off in its last but had I just bothered to notice that it was a gelding I could've SINGLED his ass. It did however send me off on a moderately entertaining flight of fancy, at least it killed off a few minutes of my day. Follow.

I don't know that $500 is an appropriately high enough fine. I'm sure that Sadler is a nice enough guy and a decent trainer. He certainly wasn't hoping to score a wagering coup on a $12500 claimer that would put him on easy street (and while yes, my modifier was dangling, I meant Sadler and not the $12500 claimer). It might very well have been an honest omission but the stewards should throw the bloody book at him. We need to start seeing some real fines and penalties handed out for transgressions. Rules are rules and when the inmates see that no one is at the helm then all bets are off...to mix my metaphors.

Oh, your horse tested positive for steroids? That's o.k., just pay us like, oh..I don't know, $2500, have your assistant saddle your horses for thirty days while you watch from the turf club and then we'll pretend this whole thing never happened. What's that? This is your second time you say? Come on (fill your favorite name here), you are making us look bad. We do these tests so people think we are doing something, not to actually catch anybody...COME ON!

Trainers need to have their license on the line when they saddle up...and don't make me go off on the trainer that "saddles" thirty horses in four different states on the same day. I don't know jack about training horses but I know enough to know that you need to be with the horse to put a saddle on it. There should be some version of the hippocratic oath they make you take when you pass your trainer's test. Why have the test if you are not going to expect some minimum standard of conduct? Are these people not responsible for the well being of their charges? Am I alone here? ...and where the hell was I?

It saddens me to think that this sport so rich in tradition and well..rich people, allows this to happen to a truly noble animal. We are all to blame. The next time you walk up to the betting window ask yourself '...just who the hell am I putting my money on?'

Beats a sharp stick in the eye

I did some rough calculations and from the numbers I get I have picked 14 out of 35 winners. This is just a straight pick regardless of odds and betting value. The sample size is admittedly small but it is encouraging and better than I expected. With a 40% win rate I can safely bet horses at 2-1 or better and expect a 20% ROI.

So who wants to give me their money???

Churchill May 21

Not a bad card at Churchill. Track is fast turf is firm. First post is 1315 EST.

None of the races today are calling on me to mortgage the house.

The first race is a Clm 10000 at 7f. The only horse to show a win at this distance is the 1 El Salsero. He is stepping up from a fair effort in a Clm 7500 at 61/2f. I'm going to go with the 2B Stormy Atlantis, he is an entry so you get two for the price of one. His last few have been awful but they were in the slop, synthetic or turf against tougher and going longer. He likes Churchill and hits at 40% on fast tracks. Take the 1 to complete the exacta.

Race 2 is a MSW 41k at 4 1/2f for 2 year olds. No clue but I'll pick the 4 Regardlesofoutcome.

Race 3 is an open Clm 25000 at 1m 1/16. I like the 2 Golden Glen but I think that everyone else will too. Edit 10 minutes before post...the 2 is currently 9/5 the 4, Saviano is at 5-1 so from a value standpoint, the 4 is the better BET.

Race 4 Alw 43100N1x at 1m 1/16 on the turf. I'm going with the 1a Grape Cottage.

Race 5 Clm 15000N3l at 1m 1/16. I like the 3 Cantallbechiefs. A tactical drop in class for him and superior figs. Asmussen and Bridgmohan. NO WAY anyone else sees this.

Race 6 a Clm 5000 at 6f. I like the 4 Delightful Demi...just because Demi Moore is hot.

Race 7 A good Alw43100N1x for fillies at 1m 1/8. I like the 1 French Kiss.

The UEFA Champions League game is on soon so I am calling it a day. I might play Arlington on friday, if I decide to go to the track with some friends. Until tomorrow...
A friend once told me that to have a chance in this game I should find a really fast horse, so I'll leave you with that.

It's a whole new ballgame

The morning after....
Many superlatives, all possible adjectives, blah, blah, blah...
Big Brown is yesterdays news. The Belmont awaits.

I won't be handicapping the Churchill card today. I go out of town for a few days and need to spend time with the family-otherwise I will find that I have a whole lot more time to devote to handicapping.

I stumbled across the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance webpage today and wonder how one becomes a member of that. I could use the help in setting up this page and insights into the ownership aspect of the game. If anyone reading this has a clue, please let me know; although to misquote Groucho, I'd have reservations about any organization that would have me as a member.

Wednesday's card at Churchill will be my next play; remember, I start laying real money down in June so I need to put this all together. Until then...

Get to the lead and improve your position.

The clouds parted...

Today we saw what we've been waiting for. Some sign that we know what the hell is going on.
http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=CD&CTY=USA&DATE=20080515&RN=99

Take a look at race 8. Scarlet Love won at almost 10-1.
Today was a good day. In the races we had no opinion the results justified our staying away. The odds on in the second race got beat so we lose nothing there.
Race 4 the favorite at almost 2-1 won so we would have received payment.

The beauty however was the 8 race. That is the situation we need to focus on. A well meant horse that goes off at good odds. 10-1 was a gift and warranted taking a second mortgage on the house.
This of course guarantees that our next 50 picks will finish up the track...

Here's looking up your address.

Bear with me...

Apparently the links I post to the daily cards require a password to access. I logged into the blog under a different user name and tried accessing the links and was able to get them no problem. If anyone else is unable to get the card information please let me know and I will try to figure something else out. All the cards I am doing are for the Churchill meet.
Thanks for the post.

Yesterday was not all that bad:http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=CD&CTY=USA&DATE=20080514&RN=99.

I guess I need to start refiguring my handicapping to include no activity in three weeks.
The horses I considered in both race 2 and 3 but chose not to play because of the lack of works came back in fine form and won convincingly. The 2 won race 2 at 5.5to1 and the 1 won race 3 at 6to1. Wasn't outhandicapped, just outplayed. It happens. In hindsight, those are the plays that one looks for as far as money management is concerned. A modest choice going off at fair to generous odds. In the long run those bets will show a positive ROI.
Race 4 I didn't have a clue and it showed. The 2 won by daylight as the favorite. The three week gap in his works between the 6th and the 29th is what soured me on him. I like to see steady works for first timers. A break in the routine could indicate some trouble...jokes on me.
Race 5 I was plain wrong.
Race 6 our pick was 4/5 and just hung on to win.
Race 7 shows how much I know. The favorite won and our pick at 17to1 was well beaten after setting the pace for a half.
Race 8 we passed but the winner was the favorite and won by 14!
Race 9 Our pick won at 2to1 so I guess he was the only positive play we had on the day.

Things are progressing over all. Still need to make better betting choices. It's easy to spot the favorite but betting him to win is tricky at odds on and finding a better betting choice is where the money is made.
If you're in it at the eigth pole, how you finish reveals your class.

Wednesday, 14 May

It's a sloppy, sloppy day. Races are off the turf. http://www.drf.com/drfDownloadPastPerformance.do?TRK=CD&CY=USA&DATE=14&RACE=99

Skip race 1.
Race 2 Go Go Diablo-Likes the slop. His mudda was a Mudder. The only reason I don't pick the 2 is because he shows no activity in 3 weeks.
Race 3. This was supposed to be on the turf but they are off, so 5 furlongs in the slop. The number 2 has been off since january with a light worktab. There could be more behind the scenes but the trainer does not have a good record with these types. The 1 likes the track and distance and showed an affinity for the slop but again shows no works in 3 weeks. This angle might be something I need to factor in in the future if a lot of these types start winning but I prefer to see a horse that is working reccently no matter how slowly. My pick is the 7, while never having raced in the slop, his last work iwas in the mud in respectable time and Amoss is on fire.
Race 4 I have no idea. Between the 1-4-6.
Race 5 If the 4 goes off at 3-1 or better he is a solid play. I might make a trip to the OTB if he is hovering around there.
Race6 The 4 Stanton.
Race 7 No good feeling but I'll go with the 1.
Race 8 First level allowance with no horses showing any form on dirt. This was supposed to be on the turf. Pass the race.
Race 9 Close between 2-3-6. I give the nod to the 2.
That's it race fans.
Results tonight...I know you'll be watching.

The hits just keep on coming

Here are the results for saturday: http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=CD&CTY=USA&DATE=20080510&RN=99.



Race one we already covered. Race 2 I have no idea why I didn't like the 1 horse. Looking at him now his credentials leap off the page but my understanding is that the tracks don't allow you to bet after the race is run. He went off as the favorite and with good reason. I attribute it to sloppy handicapping on my part.



Race 3 my pick scratched at the starting gate so we'll never know. I will say that the horse that won, I had thrown out so I would not have had him anyway.



Race 4 I missed the winner. He shows all the signs of a horse that is ready to win and I missed them. Both my picks ran up the track and exhibited characteristics that I normally shy away from in my picks. The lack of recent works by my picks and the stellar work pattern of the winner just compound my frustration. Sloppy work.



Race 5 we came in 3rd by 3/4 of a length. The winner was stepping up in class off a race where he had an easy lead. No recent works or activity in 20 days so we steered clear of him but he proved better than I thought.



Race 6 I couldn't decide between the two and they completed the exacta. Had we boxed it, it would have paid 13.80 for $4. 3to1 is not too bad of a payoff.



Race 7 Fate takes a Hand ran poorly as the 3rd choice at under 3to1. Birbirdistheword ran back to his form from 2 years ago with no works or races in over 3 weeks so this is just one of those races where you scratch your head and press on. It happens.



Overall, handicapping is still sloppy. Finding favorites and second choices is not hard to do. Betting undervalued horses hurts in the long run. Picking winners and putting your money on them are two different things. Need to work on eliminating more losers from our initial handicapping and developing a betting strategy.



In other news, talked to a trainer today and have a meeting set up for next saturday to observe her operation and get a feel for the business. $65/day for training expenses plus monthly vet and farrier bills. She has a close relationship with a local breeder and he regularly supplies her with decent stock in the $20,000-$40,000 range. She says she is happy with him and trusts his operation and product. No guarantees of course.



Until next time, never bet on a three legged horse.

P.S. So I am a dumb ass. Apparently Blogger saved the file as a draft before it crashed.

Aces High

To steal a line from Churchill, of the Winston persuasion: ...handicapping is the worst way to pass the time, except for all the others. When I find the genius whose idea it was for me to handicap and post my picks on a daily basis, I am going to break my foot off in his ass.

Man this hurts. I decided to do this so I wouldn't have to work for a living.
Today's card at Churchill: http://www.drf.com/drfDownloadPastPerformance.do?TRK=CD&CY=USA&DATE=10&RACE=99

Race 1- I like the 6 Tiffany Royal. She is stuck on the outside in this 4 1/2furlong dash. The short run to the turn could leave her wide but I think she has the speed to get over. Plus Asmussen and Bridgmohan never hurts. Not surprising she is odds on so no bet.

Race 2-I like the 2 No fault but I don't think there is enough speed in here to set up his late kick. Edgerrin is likely to get the lead and he loves the track and distance.

Race 3 I don't have a strong feeling on. Misparkle Too (4) looks like a contender but I wouldn't bet on it.

Race 4 A MDN Claiming that I would normally pass but all of the horses in here are dropping in from MSW or a tougher MDN Claiming. I like Adriatic Storm (3) with Noon Day(10) to make the exacta.

Race 5-Polarity (5) is my lukewarm choice.

Race 6-Between the 2 and the 3 so no pick.

Race 7-I guess I'll go with the 2 Fate takes a Hand. Only because he is the only one who shows some room for improvement.

That's all I got through. I have been working on my parallel times charts and pace pars so that is taking up a lot of my time. For those keeping score we, and by that I mean I, are without a winner so far. But then again "...we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shal never surrender."

Swing and a miss

So I think we have a pattern developing, most of the horses I pick end up running second. Here are the charts for friday:http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=CD&CTY=USA&DATE=20080509&RN=99.

If I bet to place I would be way ahead of this game. It looks to me as if I need to fine tune my betting strategy. None of the winners were surprises, in fact most of them were the favorites. Most of them were too short a price to bet to win but the exactas were probably very gettable...yes I am making up my own words now, remember it's my blog. While I would be showing a loss on the meet I am encouraged that my picks are not running off the board and that I am not getting beat by longshots. Getting beat by the favorite when you choose not to play the price is not completely disheartening. I either need to turn to the exotics to complement my win bets on short priced favorites or pass the races entirely.

If I were a smarter man I would pass on the handicapping thing entirely.

In other news, I received excellent instruction in Excel and now have a basic profit loss spreadsheet going that I willl incorporate into my page as soon as I start laying real money down.

Until tomorrow, may all your photos be winners.

You need a trainer...

So it seems, from what I can gather, that the key to getting into the horse business is the trainer. They are the the all powerful man behind the curtain but just don't try to peek back behind it. Getting in touch with one of these mysterious Loch Ness type creatures is harder than getting into the Whitehouse unannounced. These folks don't post their numbers anywhere. I called the the http://www.itharacing.com/ and they put me in touch with the http://itbof.org/. The lady there, while very helpful had no information for me. She tried to direct me back to the itha.

She concluded that I needed to hire a trainer to help me through the process and she listed several of them but would not hand out their contact information. She told me the best thing to do was to interview them at the track. When I posed the silly question of how I could identify these magic men she said that they were all over. The key is to walk up to a random person and just start talking....something I thoroughly enjoy doing. I did know a trainer but she apparently changed her number or knows better than to get involved with me. Eventually one of these people will call me back and I will have some information regarding where to start.

As a side note. I don't think that this handicapping scenario is going to work out the way I have it setup. I need to have money on the line in order to get a true feel for what I am doing. Having that money at stake will give me a true sense of where my handicapping is going. In that vein I will take the month of May and just paper bet to get my feet wet but once June rolls around I will switch to actual betting. I won't be able to bet every card since I might be on the road but when I am home I'll go to the OTB.

Until next time, may all your trifectas cash.