On paint, plantations and Pandora

Stolen from cartoonstock.com

William Bradford, in his journal Of Plymouth Plantation, wrote: 'all great and honourable actions are accompanied with great difficulties, and must be both enterprised and overcome with answerable courages.'{sic}

If this past weekend in any way presages the maelstrom of debate and controversy that will engulf our sport, it will fall to the so-called caretakers of our game to see us through.

We have arrived at the proverbial crossroads. Do we shrink back into the shell of provincialism or venture out into the world of international racing? How comfortable will we be on the global stage, when our drugs and our dirt no longer buttress our weaknesses?

The Breeders' Cup got what it wanted; a global contingent, and those pesky foreigners walked away with the lion's share of the awards. After a fiasco in last year's slop, the Europeans exacted their revenge with blissful abandon. What we witnessed at Santa Anita was the first salvo from the International Armada that will rain down on the San Gabriel Valley next year. How long it takes us to adapt to the new world order will depend entirely upon our tolerance for pain.

If thoroughbred racing in North America continues to breed speed and dirt horses, the end of the year awards will undoubtedly be dispersed amongst horses without a Breeders' Cup victory and the Breeders' Cup will find that its festival of racing has become a parade ground for international breeders. TOBA will most definitely be displeased.

In its decision to hold the BC at Santa Anita two consecutive years, the BC may have inadvertently shifted the fulcrum of breeding towards the Old Continent. Those undecided foreigners, that stayed away to watch the proceedings, are even now, salivating at the mouth in anticipation of the víkingr. Coolmore has already charted the course for their assault; I assure you.

Who do we have that will defend our shores? Da'Tara? Macho Again? Colonel John, our most promising horse that will stay in training finished a well beaten sixth. Big Brown, the unjustly maligned horse, is gone.(How redemptive would that be? IEAH could be next year's Jess Jackson.)

In 2010/11 the stage shifts back to the dirt but those might just be fleeting moments. If the world comes over next year and with it, the betting handle, our days of ignorant bliss could be fading fast. (Maybe TOBA and the AGSC can step up and save us by carding two or three days of racing, with purses in the millions, for horses that have not run outside of the U.S.)

Something has to give. The spastic decisions of the BC, regarding dates and venue, cannot continue. Maybe alternating synthetic sites with dirt sites, if that is how they want to go. Make those that want to get that BC win for their dirt horse have to at least stick around another year to race it. Maybe state that only synthetic tracks will be included in the list of potential sites (Aqueduct hosted once and they could go to the synthetic; it would make the winter racing there a little more predictable. Belmont is big enough to replace its outer turf course with a synthetic one), although I think that would be premature. Dirt is not inherently dangerous.

I am not married to any of these ideas, I am just throwing something out there. This is not the end of the argument or even the beginning; we have cut ourselves off from the rest of the world for too long and it is past time we joined the conversation.

We have a clean sheet. What will we write?

Will you respect me in the morning?

I don't have an online wagering account.

I live five minutes from an OTB and the extra effort to go and bet is enough of a deterrent for me to keep from blowing what is left of my 401k. If I have a strong opinion on a race I usually make it in time to place my bet.

I had a poll up a few weeks ago, asking what ADW people used. I think I had only seven responses but six of them were for Twinspires(a sponsor of the TBA older horse division). I called Twinspires to inquire about the process and the system itself. There seem to be some disputes with several horseman's groups, infringing on my ability to bet several tracks.

I did some research and uncovered that Twinspires is owned by CDI(Churchill Downs) but, curiously, I would be unable to bet on Churchill during its Fall meet. Hmmm.

If I wanted to bet on California races I would have to call it in since they cannot accept bets over the internet. This seems to defeat the purpose of an online betting site but what the hell do I know.

So it is with wonder and infinite joy I welcome the news that bygones are bygones and everyone can freely bet from anywhere on the Breeders' Cup races. I guess all those disputes are behind us and nothing but open track ahead. Happy day.

In other confounding news(courtesy of PaulickReport), there are still plenty of overpriced tickets available for Friday and Saturday. Apparently, and this may just be a rumor if the recent unemployment figures are accurate, people work on Fridays. Holding an event, with no name recognition, on a non-holiday Friday, while asking people to pay you to give you money is just stupid.

Some may have noticed that I have not written about who I like in the races. I am not betting either card and will instead be donating my usual bankroll to Rerun. Tripledeadheat has a great interview with Alex Brown up on his site and I encourage you to read it.

I, along with other members of the TBA, have posted my picks on the TBA homepage. I think if Curlin runs the 10 furlongs faster than any other horse in the race, he stands a solid chance of joining Tiznow as a back to back winner of the Classic. I also like Smooth Air to hit the board. Bejarano gets the mount in a shoddy move by the owner. You dance with the girl who brung ya'.

The petition to Take Back the Race closes tonight.

May they all come home safe...

Ballydoyle's bauble

"America is a country that doesn't know where it is going but is determined to set a speed record getting there."
Laurence J. Peter

My first flight instructor liked to tell me that 'there are old pilots and bold pilots but there are no old, bold pilots.' It sounded like a load of crap at the time and still does to some extent, I mean who doesn't like their pilot to be arrogant and oblivious to rules and regulations?

Since then I have learned a few things and forgotten more but the one thing I know is that whenever something goes wrong, you don't start flailing wildly with the hope of doing the right thing.

I think Kahlifonia's rush to install synthetics on all its tracks is just such a spastic display. None of that is news and has been covered ad nauseam but what I wonder is just what this year's BC Classic is going to prove to anyone other than Curlin?

Ballydoyle is making its annual jaunt across the pond to take down the Classic. They have never been shy about their desire to, wrest from us silly colonials, that dirt race. With the best, remaining, turf runners in the world, another GI turf victory would mean absolutely nothing to their future stud value. So they come here to get that elusive GI dirt win and propel their horses to the breeding stratosphere.

If they win the Classic this year, what the hell is that going to prove?

On henhouses and foxes.

Despite the European connection to the origin of grading races and the international application of U.S. grades, it must be kept in mind that our racing differs fundamentally from racing in other countries: in most countries, stakes events are set forth by a central authority, and changes to major fixtures are made under the aegis of a central governing body. U.S. racing, however, is de-centralized, and no such uniform control can exist. U.S. racing and stakes programs are dynamic products of regulatory, contractual, and competitive conditions in many local and regional environments. The U.S. grading system is designed to accommodate the flexibility and dynamism of U.S. racing; a grading system that could not quickly respond to our ever-changing conditions would never be appropriate in our country.

Judgment and flexibility thus must always be a part of the system.

-Taken from TOBA Members' Guide 2008

A claim similar to the last sentence in the first paragraph, regarding the credit markets, was made by several financial institutions.

According to the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA), the total number of societies that organize flat racing:

• Great Britain....1
  
• Germany..........40
  
• U.S....................139
• France..............151

Now, I have no idea what the criteria for a "society" are but there has to be some overkill in the discrepancy alone.

The American Graded Stakes Committee (AGSC) is a construct of TOBA. Six of the eleven members are TOBA members and the other five are elected by the first six. An organization of breeders is in charge of determining what races in North America deserve the best ratings that breeders can claim for their horses. WTF?

The criteria for awarding graded status are outlined in the Members' Guide and they cite an example in the INDEX but I could not find it anywhere. In essence, it's easier to figure out the nuclear launch codes, there are two general categories; each consisting of 635 parts...

1. Best achievement in graded and unrestricted Black Type stakes in the 24 months before and after the race in question.
2. Best annual racing performance, think Timeform, as measured by the North American Rating Committee(NARC). The NARC operates under the auspices of the Jockey Club, TOBA and the Breeders' Cup Lmtd., and the International Classification Committee.

In the first category points are awarded for 1-2-3 finishes in graded and unrestricted black type stakes with diminishing returns for lower grades and finishes. In the second category, NARC ratings, the process involves a cesium-137 decay protocol, carbon dating and Revelation 6:8.

According to the TOBA site, 103 GI races were carded this year; of these, 46 were for fillies and mares and 8 are the Breeders Cup. With apologies to the superior Distaff division, this cursory study focuses on the males. I am sure that there are myriad errors in this quick look at the grading and effect of races but I thought it might be instructive.

Forty-nine GI races remain for the males in all divisions.

I looked at GI's and set an arbitrary cutoff at 9 furlongs to see if there was a bias towards routes or sprints; I also did not include any of the Breeders' Cup races. I understand that anything less than 8f is considered a sprint for handicapping purposes but my "study" focuses on the longer/arbitrary definition of the word.

There are eleven races (22% of male races and just under 11% of all GI's) on dirt this year carded for older horses. Straight 3yo dirt races totalled nine, with nothing after the Travers, albeit the 3yos tackle the older horses by this time so we could include those races (additional 4). Turf races for older horses, surprisingly, topped the list with twelve. Only two races for 3yos, Secretariat and Hollywood Derby.

Of the forty-nine "open" GI races, thirty-four are carded at 9+ furlongs. Three year olds qualify for up to twenty (on dirt) but fourteen is probably closer to reality. There are not as many sprints carded at the GI level and, ostensibly, GI's are what breeders are pointing toward.

I don't know that KY Derby preps need to be GI races, no matter what the downstream performance of its entrants proves to be. With so many opportunities for three year olds to snag a GI, there is little reason for them to stick around another year.

I didn't feel like counting the number of races but I would guess that there are 450+ graded stakes this year.

Does that number seem a little high?

What If...

I have no background in marketing or finance. I am not familiar with the inner workings of the industry nor do I have a clue regarding the mechanism of ADW's and federal v. state gambling regulations. I am ignorant of social networking protocols and the voodoo that is this mythical beast known as the internet. The fact that I can turn on my computer and make it to this page on a daily basis is a victory for me but I am learning.

If you have ever seen a dog look at a clock you have a general idea of my frame of reference.

So I throw this out there fully expecting that it will, at best be ignored(if viewed at all) and at worst mocked in the dark dimension of the blogosphere. On the bright side, I am pathologically antisocial so I am fine with all that?

As is no secret, racing needs to do three things immediately:

1. Appoint a commissioner with supreme executive power.
2. Ban all racing medication and drugs. Zero tolerance. Progressively punitive fines and suspensions with a lifetime ban on the third offense. Not 13 or 72.
   
3. One racing jurisdiction. One set of rules.

Anything less than this, run for the exits.

Now, if this can be done and that is a big if, then the industry leaders can turn their attention towards other matters...but first get the thing going in the right direction. Forget about marketing the sport and increasing its fan base. Focus on fixing the problem. The industry is flawed and no amount of PR is going to get it whole. Too much is being thrown around as the panacea...there isn't any one. You can't build a lasting tower if the foundation is defective.

Once the hemorrhaging has stopped then all those ideas that are floating about out there can be gradually brought into the fold. This will not be fixed in a few years. The short attention span generation might not tolerate this but it has to be done. This industry hinges on the principles of evolution and natural selection NOT nanotechnology, the blidget and speed dating (all good things in their own way).

What if, and this is by no means the list topper, racing created two conferences. East v. West. In this country racing has pretty much split itself up that way anyway so a formal division of the product would not be that much of a stretch and Californians are already their own breed.

Follow....

Create a racing circuit, a tour if you will. Cooperation is needed and that is probably where this thing goes off the rails but if American Idol can be a hit then anything can happen.

1. Shorten the racing season. Arlington does not need a 120+ day meet and neither does anyone else. Reduce the number of races and you get larger fields. Like I said, I have no background in marketing or finance but I imagine that simple math still applies.
2. Create a series of races agreed upon by all tracks/or whoever, so that nobody cannibalizes anybody else's product. Set up the races so that each division, i.e. sprint, turf mile, etc... gets an even spacing of their premier events among all the member tracks; this could tie in with point 1, where each track has a 2-3(or whatever) week meet and the venue changes so the horses travel the circuit. Something similar to what Formula 1 has. The series would be sponsored by someone-not Hooters.
   
3. Make the Breeder's Cup the goal. Apply the rankings that the TBA has set up or something along those lines. Again, I am not the marketing guy.
4. Create an inter-conference showcase, like the Sunshine Millions but for all horses. East v. West. Keep that as the January goal. Some races would need to move their date but that's the price of progress, i.e. The Clark might not run in November or whatever.
5. Tie the Claiming Crown into this somehow and make it a national tour along with the graded stakes series.
6. Smaller tracks would either card very short meets that would follow the "Pro Tour" and cater to the claiming types or they would shut down or become concert venues or state parks. There are too many tracks for the number of sound horses.
7. Streamline the wagering process. Reduce take-out. Make it a standard percentage nationwide and maybe incorporate a revenue sharing agreement a la NFL to split all proceeds among the racing circuit. The commissioners office could be in charge of this pool and would then allocate whatever percentage to some federal fund that the respective states could dip into based on percentage of handle generated or whatever metric you want to use. The remaining funds go to purses, track employee benefits, drug testing, horse care issues and whatever else.
8. Market the BLOODY crap out of this thing. Get sponsors and some legitimate broadcast agreement; if anybody suggests televising human interest stories instead of the GI Manhattan, shove a hot poker up their ass. Again, though I am not the marketing guy that last one might boost ratings.

And finally....Preserve the nobility of the sport. Incorporate whatever else into whatever else but maintain the purity and the pursuit of that ideal, that embodiment of excellence that through the years has been called: Man O' War, Whirlaway, Citation, Native Dancer, Ruffian, Dr. Fager, Personal Ensign, Buckpasser, Forego, Kelso, Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, Ouija Board, Cigar, Evening Attire...

Devil take the hindmost

I am not handicapping today but I thought I would take a moment for some insightfully brilliant social commentary. I don't think I will make a habit of this but then again it's my blog and I am not forcing you to read this.

"There is something about the outside of the horse that is good for the inside of a man."
-Winston Churchill

Ever since Edward Smith-Stanley, the 12th Earl of Derby, won that fateful coin toss in 1779 against Sir Charles Bunbury, affording himself the luxury to name a race in his own honor, the goal of every horseman worth his salt has been to win the Derby; those that say otherwise are lying. The Derby Stakes in England and its American counterpart are the two most prestigious races in the world and while the American equivalent has a better marketing team behind it, the Epsom Derby (that's Dar-bee for us continentals) has retained the essence of that initial wager; horses covering a route of ground over the turf.

The rest of the world, treats horse racing for what it is, the purest expression of speed and class in the equine athlete; not the cheap speed we breed here on the continent but the most honest and willing manifestation of heart and desire. The horses overseas are not drugged or medicated as they are here. They don't hold year round racing meets because they hope to squeeze just that much more from the bettor and hope that just one more race will fill. Their meets are the quaint and idyllic racing events that they were meant to be. A few weeks at the most and then the crowds melt away like an early snow, leaving behind the rolling hills of the natural turf courses.

I am sure that it is not entirely a Norman Rockwell painting over there. They do gamble and they do have infrastructure that must support the betting crowd but it is not the cut-throat, mad dash to the bottom line at the expense of the horse that drives it. Horses are bred with the route of ground in mind, those that can't compete are quickly found other jobs. The races at a mile and over are the norm and not the exception. Here, the Kentucky Derby, at a mile and a quarter, is the farthest and only time that most of the horses that compete in it will ever run. In the rest of the world it is run as a matter of course. Races here, at a mile, are laughably considered route races while the rest of the world cards those as one of their shortest distances.

The inbreeding that we have seen in the U.S., designed to build more speed into the horse at the expense of stamina and strength, is a sickness of our own doing. We are all to blame. Tracks card the races they do based on the horses they have stabled on the grounds. It does no good to have races at a mile and a quarter if nobody is going to run in them. Trainers won't enter their horses because they know that the horse can't handle it or if it does run, it will stagger across the finish line if it doesn't break itself trying, which it will heart-wrenchingly do.
Nobody wants to go see slow horses "plod" around just trying to outlast each other so nobody will bet on those races. If nobody bets on those races then no money comes into the track and no money is put up for purses so nobody runs. It's a vicious circle, it just goes round and round-which is what makes it vicious...and a circle.

The Breeder's Cup, envisioned as the championship of racing, a day where the world's best horses come together was supposed to focus the industry into showcasing the quality of the breed. Why is it only held in the U.S.? Is it because overseas, the U.S. based horses would have to run without medication? If there are multi-million dollar purses to be had on the international stage, why do we not send more of our so-called best to challenge for them?

A glimmer of hope remains, as it usually does given the nobility of the horse, that we can see this turn around. This weekend at Arlington, the racing secretary Kevin Greely, is carding the first running of the American 1000 Guineas. This mile event for fillies and mares on the turf, is steeped in history overseas and it is a most welcome sight to see it finally make its way to our little neck of the woods. The industry as a whole needs to change and we need to help it. More races such as this one are a step in the right direction but we have to be willing to support that effort. How we go about doing that I have no idea but if we don't do something to change our approach and catch up with the rest of the world we will be left far behind.