6to5 and Pick 'em

I downloaded the thursday card for Arlington and was planning on making that my meet for the summer since it is my local track. The whole polytrack thing though is freaking me out and I would prefer to get a handle on the dirt tracks that are out there. California switched all its tracks to the synthetics and Hawthorne doesn't open until the fall. I think therefore that I will try my hand at the Churchill Downs summer meet. They started racing two weeks ago so there is some data to collect as far as winning times and post positions. I will also be gathering data to come up with various pace pars for the different class levels.

Since I already have the thursday card for Arlington, I will finish handicapping that one and post whatever picks I think worthwhile early thursday. After that I will focus my attention solely on Churchill and keep records of my picks and profit/loss tab. Those I will update daily so that we can keep a running tab (if I can figure out how to post them). My money management startegy will center aaround the 2% rule, where I bet 2% of my capital on any single play and will discontinue betting should I lose more than 3% of the days starting capital. As the total value of my stake changes so will the nominal value of the wager. To start we will assume a $1000 bankroll and consider the experiment a failure should it reach $500. In order for me to make a play, the horse must go off at no lower than 8/5 since those are the lowest odds I feel comfortable accepting for the risk involved. Perhaps once I fine tune my technique and have a record of how my picks fare and my perceived edge over the game I can determine what my lowest acceptable odds would be.

My intent was to use the Kelly criterion in my wagering strategy but as I said I don't know my edge over the game so the technique is a cow's opinion at this point.

Until next time.