....and so it begins

I spent the morning trying to figure out how to use a spreadsheet. Before I knew it the morning was gone and I had to go to work. I still have no idea how to make the spreadsheet do what I need it to do.

Tomorrow is day one. Eventhough the money is hypothetical I feel a sense of urgency. I spent several hours this evening looking over the card and could not believe how little I accomplished. I got through race 6 and while I said I would not bet on Maiden claimers I spent a good bit of time handicapping those races anyway. Dumb.

It has been brought to my attention that my initial sum of $1000 might force me to tap out early due to statistical blips in my betting and not necessarily poor wagering decisions. If I encounter a streak of losses, the limits would close me out earlier than necessary. While I might tweak my individual bet percentage I think the starting sum will not change the outcome. If I stick to a certain percentage of capital then no matter how long my losing streak lasts, in theory, I should be able to keep betting because the actual value of the bet will decrease as my pool decreases. Two percent of $700 is $14. This will allow me to make bigger bets when I'm up and limit me from cashing out early when I'm down. The daily bet limits might need to be changed to keep me from going home after the second race should I encounter bad racing luck.

As I stated last night, I am handicapping the Arlington card for Thursday and will then switch over to the Churchill meet for the remainder of the summer. The early numbers for the Arlington meet do not seem to indicate any overpowering track bias; although most of the winners in sprints seem to be within two lengths at the quarter pole, the finishers are a fair mix of closers and pace setters. I did not delve too deeply into the numbers since this will not be my meet of choice.

Here is the card: http://www.drf.com/drfDownloadPastPerformance.do?TRK=AP&CY=USA&DATE=08&RACE=99

Thursday's card for Arlington is front loaded with maiden claiming races and poses no appeal to me. I will flatly skip any and all maiden claiming events so on to race two.

A $14000claiming race for fillies and mares at six furlongs. All the runners are coming off the Hawthorne spring meet and the track differences are extreme. Nothing jumps off the page at me as a standout. Tattooed lady(6) comes in with the highest two Beyer numbers and I think the betting public will make her the favorite. Her figures were earned in a turf sprint and a six furlong race at Hawthorne against much cheaper, where she got an easy lead and was able to overpower them in the stretch. She will not be able to get that comfortable a lead tomorrow and while she is trained by Catalano who is winning everything he enters and ridden by Douglas who usually wins the meet, she will be too short a price for me and I think she is vulnerable.

One Perfect Day(3) is trained by Janks and ridden by Emigh-another powerful combination but her form on the synthetics is questionable. Her numbers are competitive but I think the polytrack will not suit her and until she can prove that she can win on it I will go elsewhere. Case Chaser(1) and Tak's Wish(2) look acceptable with the edge going to Case Chaser. He has good form on synthetics and is on a form upswing. Tak's Wish shows no works or races since Apr20 and while he might not need it I don't like to see that idle time. Her last (they are all females...mybad) two races are excuseable since they came against better and on the turf. If Tak's Wish races back to her race three back she will be tough.

None of these horses are giving me a warm fuzzy. I can find something wrong with all of them and while I could pass the race I need to jump in and see what I see. I'll never know if it is a good bet until I make it and scared money never wins. So I will play Case Chaser as long as he goes off at 3to1 or better. Race 2 Arlington, $20 to win on the 1.

Race 3 and 4 are MDN Claimers so we pass. Race 5 is a 5k Claimer with nothing I would bet on. Wanna Secret and Imajoanietoo 4 and 3 look ok but no bets here.

That is as far as I got. Pretty sad but work and life tend to get in the way. Anyway, I need to streamline my handicapping and not look for any reason to keep every single runner. Eliminating losers is the best way to maintain the bankroll and while I might miss the rare 50to1 shot that to his own surprise stumbles across the line first, culling them from my choices can only help me. I will post the results tomorrow evening and might make one or two more selections in the morning but for now...